Bitcoin (BTC) is on track for its strongest weekly gain since September 2025, defying a broader risk-off backdrop driven by the escalating US and Israel-Iran war.
What You Need to Know
- Strategy raised $776 million this week, potentially leading to the purchase of over 11,000 BTC.
- USBitcoinETFs saw $767 million in inflows during the same period.
- Bitcoinhas historically recovered and delivered larger gains after initial selloffs during geopolitical conflicts.
STRC Hints at $776 Million in Bitcoin Buying Power
As of Saturday, BTC/USD had risen more than 7% over the past week to around $70,625. In contrast, the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) was down 1.60% over the same period.
This divergence occurred as STRC.LIVE estimates indicated that Strategy may have raised sufficient cash through at-the-market sales of its STRC instrument this week to acquire over 11,000 BTC. At current prices, this would equate to approximately $776 million in Bitcoin.
STRC is Strategy’s exchange-traded income-paying instrument designed to raise investor cash for Bitcoin purchases. When it trades at or above its $100 par value, Strategy can issue more shares, converting that demand into fresh BTC-buying capital.
Last week, Strategy purchased 17,994 BTC, valued at about $1.28 billion at the time. Approximately 30% of that BTC allocation was funded by STRC sale proceeds.
Bitcoin‘s price was further supported by US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which attracted $767 million in net inflows over five consecutive trading days, signaling robust demand for BTC despite the ongoing Middle East crisis.
Bitcoin Gains During Geopolitical Crises
Historically, Bitcoin has experienced initial selloffs at the onset of major geopolitical conflicts, only to recover and subsequently deliver larger gains.
In February 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine initially triggered a price drop, but this was followed by a 40% BTC price rally.
A similar pattern emerged after Israel’s June 2025 strikes on Iran. Bitcoin dipped immediately following the events, then reversed higher, appreciating by about 25% over the subsequent two months.
During the January 2020 US–Iran flare-up after General Qasem Soleimani’s killing, Bitcoin rose more than 50% overall, despite an initial brief price decline.
Bitcoin price may see further increases if historical patterns hold true, with macro models hinting at a potential escalation toward $100,000 in the coming months.
Bear Flag Formation Risks BTC’s Upside
Conversely, a bear flag formation on the Bitcoin chart raises the possibility of a bull trap.
Bear flags typically form when the price rises within an ascending, parallel channel following a strong downtrend. They usually resolve with a price break below the lower boundary, leading to a decline equivalent to the height of the prior downtrend.
As of Saturday, Bitcoin showed signs of upside exhaustion near the flag’s upper boundary, also coinciding with the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA) around $72,750.
Applying the bear flag principle to Bitcoin’s chart suggests a measured downside target of approximately $51,000.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Fonte: Cointelegraph
