Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for its strongest weekly gain since September 2025, demonstrating resilience against a broader risk-off sentiment fueled by the escalating US and Israel-Iran conflict. The cryptocurrency has risen over 7% this week, reaching approximately $70,625, while the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) index has declined by 1.60% in the same period.
Strategy Hints at Significant Bitcoin Purchase Power
This divergence in performance is partly attributed to indications that Strategy may have raised approximately $776 million through its STRC instrument this week. This capital infusion could translate into the purchase of over 11,000 BTC, according to estimates from STRC.LIVE. The STRC instrument is designed to help Strategy gather investor cash for Bitcoin acquisitions. When STRC trades at or above its $100 par value, Strategy can issue new shares, converting this demand into capital for buying Bitcoin.
Last week, Strategy reportedly purchased 17,994 BTC, valued at around $1.28 billion at the time. Approximately 30% of that allocation was funded by proceeds from STRC sales. In parallel, US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted substantial net inflows, totaling $767 million over five consecutive trading days, signaling sustained investor demand for BTC despite ongoing geopolitical instability.
Bitcoin’s History During Geopolitical Crises
Historically, Bitcoin has shown a pattern of initial selloffs during major geopolitical conflicts, followed by significant recoveries and subsequent rallies. For instance, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, an initial price dip was succeeded by a 40% rally in BTC. A similar trend emerged after Israel’s strikes on Iran in June 2025, where Bitcoin experienced a brief decline before gaining approximately 25% over the subsequent two months.
During the US-Iran tensions in January 2020, triggered by the killing of General Qasem Soleimani, Bitcoin saw an overall increase of more than 50%, despite an initial short-term price drop. Current macroeconomic models suggest a potential escalation towards $100,000 in the coming months, indicating that Bitcoin may continue to rise if historical patterns hold true.
Technical Analysis: Bear Flag Risks
Despite the positive price action, a bear flag formation on Bitcoin’s chart introduces downside risks and the potential for a bull trap. Bear flags typically form after a significant downtrend, characterized by price increases within an ascending parallel channel. These patterns often resolve with a price break below the channel’s lower boundary, leading to a decline equivalent to the preceding downtrend’s magnitude.
As of Saturday, Bitcoin exhibited signs of upside exhaustion near the upper boundary of this potential flag formation, coinciding with the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA) around $72,750. Applying the bear flag principle suggests a measured downside target of approximately $51,000.
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Fonte: Cointelegraph
